We’re going to keep this fairly short, because nothing about what the Miami Heat have done this postseason really makes all that much sense. An eight seed in the Conference Finals?
That’s crazy.
Miami got a bit of luck along the way. They beat a Milwaukee Bucks team that was missing its star player - Giannis Antetokounmpo - for a significant portion of the series. And for as fun as the New York Knicks were this year, they were probably the least menancing of any team in the league to make it to the second round of the Playoffs.
Still, the Heat have looked much, much better than the outfit they appeared to be in the regular season. Jimmy Butler has been arguably the best player of the postseason, Kyle Lowry looks postively 32 again, and Erik Spoelstra continues to be a master tactian on the sidelines.
Expect the Heat to try to junk things up defensively. The Boston Celtics have a tendency to get in their own way, and Spoelstra will give them every opportunity to do so. There will be at least one game where the Celtics throw a frustrating number of stupid passes that turn into fastbreak points.
Miami isn’t without weak points though. They play a lot of players who are exploitable on the defensive end and simply don’t have the depth of offensive fire power that the Celtics will bring to the party.
Boston should be able to maintain the spacing needed to force Bam Adebayo into some difficult decisions between helping at the basket and leaving shooters open for kickouts. Miami has no one else that can protect the rim.
The Celtics have as good a collection of perimeter defenders to throw at Butler as anyone in the league and the switchability to address the Heat’s actions away from the ball.
Most of the advantages seem to tilt toward Boston, but this Miami team is something unlike anything we’ve encountered before. The Celtics would be wise to take them very seriously.
X-Factor: Al Horford had some rough shooting nights against the Philadelphia 76ers. Boston would get a huge boost if he can refind his shooting stroke against the Heat.
Bonus X-Fator: The shape that Butler’s ankle is in will have a massive impact on the series. If he’s close to healthy we’re likely to get a knock-down-drag-out brawl. If he’s compromised, Miami is in trouble.
Prediction: Boston SHOULD get this done quickly, but they almost never do what they should. They have too much talent to totally fumble things away though. Celtics in six.