2023 NBA Playoff Preview - Eastern Conference Round 1
The postseason is upon us, and that means its time for predictions.
We don’t need much preamble here. This is an Eastern Conference NBA Playoff Preview. You’ll find relevant details on each series and the ever-important prediction for each matchup below. Keep any eye out for our Western Conference edition coming out soon.
Series are presented in order of intrigue.
Cleveland Cavaliers (4) v. New York Knicks (5)
Cavs vs. Knicks is by far the most interesting of the Eastern Conference’s first-round series. Cleveland sports the league’s second best non-garbage-time net rating (+5.8), per Cleaning the Glass, but have managed to win four fewer games than a team of such stature would be expected to. That’s the third worst expected win differential in the entire NBA.
Sometimes performing below expectations in relation to net rating is just bad luck or a funny statistical blip. Other times it means a team isn’t quite seasoned enough to cash in on the level of talent on its roster. This year’s Cavs could go either way. The Knicks actually suffer from a similar affliction, posting the league’s seventh best point differential and eighth worse win differential.
The matchup between the two units will be an opportunity for at least one team to prove they’re legit. The series matches strength against strength. New York’s non-garbage-time offensive rating of 118.7 is second in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glas. Cleveland’s defense rating of 111.0 is the league’s very best.
Defense tends to be a more reliable foundation in the playoffs and the Knicks aren’t particularly inventive in the way they score the ball (they’re just really good at it). The Cavs have the defensive pieces to muck things up in a major way and they’ve had plenty of time to scheme up how to do just that.
X-Factor: Knicks star Julius Randle has yet to be cleared to play after suffering an ankle injury. He’s a fulcrum of New York’s offense and his absence would likely be too much for the Knicks to overcome.
Prediction: Everything about the fine details of this series point towards Cleveland winning fairly easily, but they’ve struggled to match their record to the fine details of their play all year. Randle’s injury and the fact the Cavs have the best player on either side (Donovan Mitchell) are enough to make them the pick. Cleveland in six.
Philadelphia 76ers (3) v. Brooklyn Nets (6)
IF the Nets can leverage their length and athleticism for perfectly timed double teams on Joel Embiid, and IF they can get hot enough shooting off the bounce from Mikal Bridges and Spencer Dinwiddie to draw Joel Embiid out of the paint and/or force two to the ball, and IF James Harden shrinks from the moment, then maybe the Nets can cause the Sixers some headaches.
That’s a lot of ifs.
Nic Claxton has had a phenomenal defensive season, but he’s too light in the shorts to handle Embiid one-on-one. Brooklyn has good defenders to supplement Claxton’s efforts, but consistently giving Philadelphia advantage situations is no way to live. They’ve got enough perimeter talent to make the Nets pay consistently.
X-Factor: Mikal Bridges has flashed some serious upside as an offensive weapon with the Nets. He’s going to have to play at something close to an All-NBA level for his team to have any hope. That’s not likely, but it’s not entirely out of the question.
Prediction: It is REALLY hard to trust the Sixers to just take care of business without any hiccups, given how unreliable they’ve been in the playoffs recently, but this particular matchup tilts in their favor. Philly in five.
Milwaukee Bucks (1) v. Miami Heat (8)
The last time the Bucks squared up with the Heat in the playoffs was a first-round sweep in the favor of Milwaukee in 2021. Miami may be even less equipped to deal with Giannis Antetokounmpo this time around. Bam Adebayo has as good a set of physical skills to take on the task of defending the Greek Freak one-on-one, but no one can defend Antetokounmpo individually, and the Heat just don’t have the size to wall off the paint once he gets a head of steam headed to the basket.
Miami’s plodding offense and lack of shooting is destined for some ugly performances against Milwaukee’s finely tuned defense.
X-Factor: Tyler Herro has the shooting ability off the bounce to punish the Bucks if they keep Brook Lopez in too deep of a drop. Aside from the individual brilliance of Jimmy Butler, he’s Miami’s best chance of forcing the Milwaukee defense to adjust.
Prediction: Sorry Heat. Bucks in four.
Boston Celtics (2) v. Atlanta Hawks (7)
The Celtics swept their season series with the Hawks 3-0. Don’t expect a much different result here. Atlanta has very few options for defending Boston’s uber-talented wing duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Shifty guards have given the Celtics trouble at times in the past, but it’s hard to imagine a world in which Boston - with all its long, athletic defenders - can’t recreate the kind of suffocating, quick-to-double defense the Miami Heat used to stifle Trae Young in the playoffs last year.
X-Factor: Derrick White will probably get the first crack at defending Young. He’s a gifted isolation defender and deft screen navigator. White is about as trustworthy a scheme executor as there is in the NBA. If he can make life hard on Young, the Hawks may go down without much of a fight.
Prediction: This should be a sweep for the Celtics, but they have a tendency to make life hard on themselves in the postseason. Boston in five.