If you missed it, you can check out our Eastern Conference Preview here. There aren’t a lot of likely surprises in the East, but the Western Conference appears poised for some potential turbulence, with a number of lower-seeded teams with track records of postseason success. Let’s walk through each matchup one-by-one.
Series are listed by order of intrigue.
Memphis Grizzlies (2) v. Los Angeles Lakers (7)
This one is impossible to pick. Almost every outcome feels like it’s in play. Here’s the full list of open questions:
Can anyone on the Lakers guard Ja Morant one-on-one?
Does it matter if anyone on the Lakers can guard Ja Morant one-on-one if they can just go under screens and force him to either be a jump shooter or attempt to score amid the size of an Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Jarred Vanderbilt back line?
Are the Grizzlies going to struggle on the glass with Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke out?
Is LeBron James healthy enough to make his usual impact on both ends of the court?
Can Los Angeles keep up with Memphis’ pace?
Can the Grizzlies hang if the Lakers grind the game to a halt and force them to play in the halfcourt?
Will Jaren Jackson Jr. be able to consistently stay out of foul trouble?
Is Dillon Brooks going to injure someone?
Can D’Angello Russell find a role as a positive contributor?
That’s a ton of variables to consider. If James is the version of himself he showed in the Lakers’ Play-In game against the Pelicans then a healthy Grizzlies team probably gets this done in five or six, but the Grizzlies aren’t healthy and James may catch a rhythm the more he plays.
History says we shouldn’t trust a seven seed, but what happens if the seven seed reimagined its entire roster in the middle of the season?
X-Factor: It feels obvious to say that one of the best players of all time is an x-factor, but LeBron’s health is likely what will determine the outcome of the series. If he can get down hill on offense and just be passable on the defensive end then Los Angeles is in good shape. It’s not clear that his body is going to allow him to do either of those things consistently.
Prediction: Grizzlies in seven…no. Grizzlies in five…no. Lakers in six.
Sacramento Kings (3) v. Golden State Warriors (6)
Poor Kings. They finally broke their 16-year playoff drought and what’s their prize? The defending champs and a core of Warriors players that have won four NBA Championships - a team that employs arguably the best offensive and the best defensive players of their generation.
Sacramento’s home crowd will be raucous and Golden State has been abysmal on the road throughout the regular season. Winning at the Golden One Center will be no small chore, but so was winning on the road in Boston in the NBA Finals last year, and Stephen Curry managed to make that look fairly easy.
The Warriors will be re-integrating Andrew Wiggins after an extended absence from the team for personal reasons, and the Kings have a legitimately devastating offense. There is plenty of reason to think they can steal a game or two, but taking the series feels like wishful thinking.
X-Factor: Draymond Green is a defensive savant. He’ll have his hands full attempting to quaterback Golden State’s defense as De’Aaron Fox flies off handoffs from Domantas Sabonis with shooters all over the court. Green should terrify the Kings. He won’t stop them entirely, but if he can just slow them, Sacramento is in trouble.
Prediction: Let’s give the Kings one win from pure energy in their home arena and another where the Warriors fart around and turn the ball over too much. Golden State in six.
Phoenix Suns (4) v. Los Angeles Clippers (5)
What a clash this would be if the Clippers had a healthy Paul George. Unfortunately, they don’t. They do have a continuity advantage. Kevin Durant has only played eight games since joining Phoenix at the trade deadline. They’ve won every single one of them.
Kawhi Leonard looms as a threat to ruin the Suns winning ways with Durant in the fold, but he’s going to have to play at his very peak if Los Angeles wants to compete without George in the fold. The Clippers have a lot of theoretical versatility they could throw at the Suns if they want to really shake things up, but Phoenix has so much high-end talent on its roster that it might not matter.
Want to go small? Fine we’ll just put (Zach Lowe voice) Kevin Frickin Durant at center.
Every “chess move” that Ty Lue can turn to can be accounted for by the Suns. Mostly because they have Durant. There’s also the danger Los Angeles runs of playing Russell Westbrook big minutes and giving the Suns a place to help off of defensively.
X-Factor: Westbrook, with his limited shooting and occasional lack of focus defensively, could be a major point of failure in the Clippers rotation. He also might be a bit of a handful for anyone on the Suns’ roster to try to deal with off the bounce. How he plays may have an outsized impact on the series.
Prediction: Kawhi gets the Clippers one game, but they’re outmatched from a talent and versatility perspective. Suns in five.
Denver Nuggets (1) v. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)
The Wolves have an uncanny ability to mind trick their opponents into playing in their own style, which is ugly, unpredictable, and occasionally brilliant. Just ask the Grizzlies, who struggled to put Minnesota away in their first-round matchup last year, despite entering the series as the seemingly more talented team.
The Nuggets are too good to lose this series, but they could most certainly drop a game or two. Injuries to Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid are huge blows to Minnesota’s depth.
X-Factor: Rudy Gobert is fresh off suspension for punching his own teammate (not a great sign for the team’s chemistry). He’ll be tasked with guarding arguably the best offensive player in the world in Nikola Jokic. How he fares will dictate whether or not the Wolves have a chance.
Prediction: Anticipate some weird stuff happening. It’s what the Wolves do. Winning series is not. Nuggets in six.