The Milwaukee Bucks got off to an underwhelming 6-8 start this year, hampered by a rash of injuries to key players. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have already missed a combined 14 games. Brook Lopez has been out for all but the season opener and recently underwent back surgery. Donte DiVincenzo is yet to log a single minute as he recovers from a serious ankle injury.
That Milwaukee stumbled out of the gates should come as no surprise, but through all the variability in availability, the Bucks’ superstar rock has remained as steady and dominant as ever. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 27.6 points, 11.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game, with a .603 true shooting percentage.
Milwaukee has outscored opponents by 14.2 points points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions when Giannis plays, per Cleaning the Glass. His impact is translating into wins more consistently with Middleton and Holiday back by his side. The Bucks have emerged victorious in ten of their last eleven games, and haven’t lost when all three of the team’s stars have been active together.
Lopez has no clear timetable to return, and his absence limits what Milwaukee can do defensively. Lopez is a mountain of a human being with quick feet and good timing. He’s a centerpiece to the Bucks’ defense when they opt to stay huge and wall off the paint with drop coverage against the pick-and-roll.
That strategy has proven to be hugely effective - particularly in the regular season - and enables Antetokounmpo to function as roving agent of chaos from the weakside. He’s a destructive force when he does.
Milwaukee has opted to keep him in such a role in its new starting unit, asking Bobby Portis to guard opposing centers. The Bucks play a much more aggressive scheme in that configuration, sending Portis - who is substantially smaller than Lopez and struggles to defend in space - to blitz ball screens frequently.
It’s working thus far. Lineups featuring Antetokounmpo and Portis together have held opponents to 98.6 points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. Milwaukee’s offense has been close to unstoppable during those minutes as well. Portis provides extra shooting and just a touch of menace attacking closeouts.
The offensive benefits the Bucks can leverage from playing Portis such significant minutes should translate to the postseason, but whether or not Milwaukee can defend at the level it has to-date come playoff time is a more tenuous proposition. Blitzing defenses fall apart against teams with top-end offensive talent.
Consistently providing an outfit like the Nets or Warriors with advantage situations, for example, is not a sustainable way to function. It’s possible that Antetokounmpo is such a monster on the backend that the Bucks can lean on him heavily, and scramble their way to success, but history has not been kind to teams that have to rely on such aggressive tactics.
There are alternative solutions to be explored. Lopez may be back in time to plug into his lane clogging role when the games matter most. The Bucks switch when it suits them, though doing so in a series that includes the game’s best isolation scorers is a dangerous path. Milwaukee can always down shift to Antetokounmpo at center surrounded by wings. He’s good enough to play any scheme the Bucks want to deploy.
With P.J. Tucker departed in free agency, that means one of Pat Connaughton or Khris Middleton functioning as a quasi-big defensively. That’s a bit of an ask, but if it means that the Bucks can adapt their scheme to most effectively address the threat posed by specific opponents, then it is probably the best option in high-leverage situations.
It’s possible this is all unnecessary hand wringing. At the end of the day, if Antetokounmpo is healthy and has enough available surrounding talent, the Bucks are terrifying to deal with. He’s a monster two-way force who makes life infinitely easier on his teammates and is in the middle of yet another MVP-caliber season.
Milwaukee was missing just enough of its roster to really highlight how dominant Antetokounmpo has been to start the year. The Bucks are getting healthier and they’re starting to look like one of the best teams in the NBA again. There are a few issues to be ironed out in the coming months, but Milwaukee is waking up. The rest of the league best be ready.