Phoenix's Estranged Sun
Deandre Ayton hasn't been in his team's good graces, but he could give them a massive boost if he plays to his potential this year.
The Phoenix Suns have been in the news a lot lately. After acquiring Kevin Durant at the trade deadline and flaming out in the second round of the Playoffs, the Suns kicked off the offseason by sending Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, and nearly all of their remaining draft capital to the Washington Wizards in a deal that landed them Bradley Beal (and other less noticeable stuff).
Phoenix has blasted past the luxury tax threshold and is already dangerously close to the highly punitive second tax apron, despite only currently having eight players under contract. The Suns’ financial situation leaves them with almost no way to reshape their roster other than resigning the team’s pending free agents or orchestrating yet another trade.
Having a handful of big-contract players eating up the majority of your team’s resources is a viable strategy if those players are impactful enough. Such has been the financial reality of most “super teams” throughout the history of the NBA. Phoenix has four expensive players currently in the fold: Durant, Beal, Devin Booker, and Deandre Ayton.
Durant, Beal, and Booker have proven enough track records to assume that they’ll each live up to their sizeable salaries for at least the next couple of years. Ayton is more of a mystery.
He’s a very good player, but hasn’t blossomed into the kind of star-level big man that the Suns hoped they were drafting with the first overall pick back in 2018 (and passing on Luka Doncic in the process). Ayton’s individual stats were impressive enough last year. He averaged 18.0 points and 10.0 rebounds, while posting a .617 true shooting percentage and providing what would be best described as adequate defense.
Ayton has shown he’s capable of being much better than simply adequate though, and his offensive production alone doesn’t justify the large salary slot he’s taking up if his defense isn’t at least solidly above average. He’s got the tools to be even better than that.
Ayton has good mobility for his formidable size and has the instincts and athleticism needed to anchor a wide variety of defensive schemes. Whether or not he does so effectively depends how hot his motor is running, which was not all that often last year, a reality complicated by his strained relationship with the team and former head coach Monty Williams in particular.
Phoenix forced Ayton to go out and get an offer in restricted free agency last summer to justify his four-year $133 million deal (3 years now remaining) rather than opting to pay him as a matter of course, and he and Williams reportedly never mended fences after they stopped speaking to one another in the wake of the team’s epic postseason flameout in 2022.
That doesn’t reflect well on Ayton, but the onus of fixing a broken relationship sits with the head coach. It’s literally his job to build a healthy work environment. The estrangement between Ayton and Williams complicates the Suns assessment of exactly what to do with him.
It requires an analysis of 1) wether or not interpersonal tensions have impacted Ayton’s play 2) if those tensions extend beyond Williams to the entire organization, and 3) how likely it is that newly hired head coach Frank Vogel can smooth things over and help Ayton grow into an even more consistently impactful player.
It’s possible that Ayton just is who he is, a good but not great center who is overpaid at his currently salary. Under such conditions, Phoenix should continue to shop their (soon to be) 25 year old big man in an effort to turn him into multiple role players.
There is an alternative universe where Ayton is exactly what the Suns need though. He’s a monster athlete who can put pressure on the rim as a role man offensively, finish by the basket with touch, and play a foundational role in virtualy any defensive alignment.
Ayton has been that player for stretches of time before. Look no further than Phoenix’s run to the NBA Finals in 2021 for proof of concept. If Vogel can unlock the best version of him the Suns will be a nightmare. Phoenix doesn’t seem to have a lot of faith in that outcome, and has reportedly been actively looking for trade partners. There’s plenty of risk in that strategy.
Sending Ayton packing means giving up a lot of potential at a position of need. If he plays like he did last year for the rest of his career, striking the right deal will look like a good decision. If he reaches his potential elsewhere, Phoenix will likely be kicking itself.
Deciding what to do with Ayton is a huge pivot point for the Suns. The team’s short- and long-term fate will be determined in large part by whether or not they make the right choice. It’s just not clear what that is.