The Phoenix Suns' Win Factory is Churning out Victories
The boys in The Valley are at it again, but does it mean anything?
The Phoenix Suns looked broken at the end of the 2022 NBA Playoffs. A 33-point loss to the Dallas Mavericks in game seven of the two teams’ second-round series precipitated a summer of tension between head coach Monty Williams and star big man Deandre Ayton.
More turmoil was on its way.
Phoenix’s majority owner - Robert Sarver - was found to have a history of inappropriate behavior that included misogyny and racism by a group of external investigators. Sarver was fined $10M and suspended from the NBA for a year as a result of the findings, but his punishment provided little resolution to the public maelstrom the revelations of his behavior produced.
To add one more (though comparatively unimportant) fly in the ointment, forward Jae Crowder made it clear to the organization that he was displeased they intended to replace him in the starting lineup with Cam Johnson, and has been away from the team as the Suns seek to find a partner to trade him to.
Despite it all, Phoenix has hardly missed a beat on the court. The Suns are 8-4 and currently sit fourth in the Western Conference Standings. To-date Phoenix has posted the NBA’s second fourth best defensive rating (109.0), sixth best offensive rating (115.4) and third best net rating (+6.5), per Cleaning the Glass (which filters for garbage time). All despite dealing with a recent rash of injuries to key players.
The Suns’ winning ways should come as no surprise. They had a 64-18 record last year and were in the NBA Finals the year prior. This is a very good basketball team.
And yet something about the way Phoenix was unceremoniously dumped out of the postseason has made it difficult to buy into the team’s success. The roster has remained nearly unchanged.
If it wasn’t good enough to even crack the Conference Finals last year, why would it be now?
There have been subtle shifts to the Suns’ approach to the game that one my site as reason for optimism. For a full breakdown of the strategic changes Phoenix has made take a listen to this fantastic episode of The Dunker Spot podcast.
The cliff notes version is that the Suns have made some tweaks to their offense. Specifically they are including more players in their elbow actions, upping on-ball repetitions for Johnson and Mikal Bridges, improving their spacing by playing Johnson with the starting unit, and implementing principles that allow for more reading and reacting, as opposed to scripted plays.
It’s possible that the changes Phoenix has made will make a difference at the highest level. The Milwaukee Bucks famously experimented their way through the regular season to establish enough collective versatility to win a championship over the Suns just two years ago (it was, in fact a discussion point in the pocast mentioned above).
That comparison might not be quite apples-to-apples though. The Bucks were clearly not maximizing their potential from a versatility perspective. The changes they made throughout the regular season leading up to their title run were about adding tools to their tool belt (particularly defensively). What the Suns are up to feels a bit more like tinkering on the margins.
That matters too. To win a championship requires having top-end talent AND versatility to play multiple styles AND winning on the margins. The question here is really about whether or not Phoenix checks the first criteria.
Milwaukee clearly had the talent to win a championship and needed to figure out how to deploy it. The Suns might just be learning how to max out the potential of a group that’s simply not good enough to win it all.
That’s obviously a pessimistic outlook, but it’s not one that is without logic. Phoenix doesn’t have the kind of undeniable, world-destroying physical marvel in his prime like the Bucks have in Giannis Antetokounmpo. Devin Booker is a superstart, but he’s a small cut below the absolute creme-de-la-creme that typically fills the role of a title team’s best player.
That leaves the Suns are left in a tough spot. Much like the Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert iteration of the Utah Jazz, almost no level of regular season competence will mean anything this year. Such is life at the game’s highest level. It’s championship or bust for the Suns.